Should You Wait for a Recession to Buy a Home? The Truth Might Surprise You

Published by ReadySetLoan | March 25, 2025

With mortgage rates dipping but home prices still sky-high, some hopeful buyers are asking the big question: “Should I wait for a recession to crash the housing market?”

At ReadySetLoan, we hear this sentiment a lot:

“I’m just waiting for the market to crash so I can finally afford a home.”

It’s a tempting strategy, but here’s the truth: waiting for a crash could mean sitting on the sidelines far longer than you expect—and missing key opportunities in the process.

🐷 What’s Fueling This Waiting Game?

A recent LendingTree survey found that 36% of Americans are hoping for a housing market crash, with 29% of renters saying it’s the only way they see homeownership within reach.

But wishing for a recession isn’t the golden ticket many think it is.

“The idea that a recession automatically means cheaper homes is outdated,” says ReadySetLoan. “Today’s housing market plays by a different set of rules.”

🐷 Can a Recession Really Lower Home Prices?

Not necessarily.

Economists across the board agree: unless we see significant job losses, home prices are likely to stay steady—or even rise—during a recession.

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explained that not all recessions are created equal. The 2020 pandemic recession saw home prices skyrocket, thanks to low mortgage rates and strong buyer demand.

Compare that to the 2007-2009 housing crash, where loose lending and widespread foreclosures led to a 20%+ drop in prices. That scenario, however, was fueled by conditions not present today.

“Unlike 2008, homeowners today have strong equity, low fixed rates, and stable loan terms,” notes ReadySetLoan. “They're not likely to panic-sell unless the job market collapses—and we’re not seeing that.”

🐷 Why Waiting Could Backfire

The biggest challenge? Supply.

Even with rates easing, buyers aren't flooding back into the market—not because they don't want to, but because there aren’t enough homes for sale. Homeowners are sitting tight with their low pandemic-era rates, keeping inventory limited.

And as long as demand outweighs supply, prices have little reason to fall.

“It’s a classic case of too many runners, not enough lanes,” says ReadySetLoan. “Waiting on the sidelines doesn’t guarantee you a better starting position.”

🐷 So What Should Buyers Do Instead?

Stay informed. Stay ready. And most importantly—get prepped for opportunity.

If you're waiting for a major dip in prices due to a downturn, just remember: historically, home prices have remained resilient through most U.S. recessions. A Zillow study found that home values actually appreciated in 81% of recessions between 1996 and 2018.

The real driver of price drops? Unemployment and distress sales. If those don’t hit hard, the housing market likely won’t either.

“The winners in this market are those who prepare, not those who pause,” emphasizes ReadySetLoan. “You don't need to time the market—you need to know how to move when the timing’s right.”

🏁 Your Next Step: Get Race-Ready

If you’ve been waiting for a crash, it might be time to reassess. A recession isn’t a guaranteed discount—and the longer you wait, the more equity others are building.

Whether you're a first-time buyer or just trying to figure out your best move, ReadySetLoan is here to guide you past the confusion and across the finish line.

✅ Learn your options

✅ Explore first-time buyer programs

✅ Understand today’s market with expert insights

Don’t wait for the market to change—change how you approach it.Start your homebuying journey today with ReadySetLoan.

Want help mapping out your mortgage game plan?

🏁 Visit ReadySetLoan and let's get you moving forward.

www.ReadySetLoan.com